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KAPITALKOMPASS #57: World Economy 2026
- service4100
- 1 day ago
- 3 min read
Dear readers,
Happy New Year! We wish you and your families health, confidence, and clear markets. Welcome to the CAPITAL COMPASS – Executive Briefing on the Global Economy 2026. After inflation shocks, interest rate reversals, and geopolitical upheavals, 2026 marks the shift from crisis mode to structural realignment. Crucial factors now are location quality, political reliability, and the resilience of business models. This is precisely where we come in: We translate the new macro realities into concrete areas of action – from customs policy and supply chains to energy, infrastructure, and technology.
In short: Inflation is trending downwards, but large-scale interest rate cuts remain unlikely. Growth is selectively shifting to reform and emerging markets, while risk premiums are rising due to geopolitics – a tailwind for defense, cybersecurity, and strategic raw materials. Those who align portfolios with robust value creation and regulatory adaptability are laying the foundation for above-average risk-adjusted returns in 2026.
Macroeconomic environment
Inflation: Declining in most industrialized and emerging economies. Energy prices and supply chains are stabilizing.
Monetary policy: Interest rates will remain largely stable. Large interest rate cutting cycles are not expected.
Growth: Weak in western industrialized countries, robust in selected emerging economies (excluding China).
Key trends and implications
1. Trade & Tariffs (USA) US tariff policy is becoming less stringent, but remains a source of political uncertainty. Implication: Relief for global industries, reduced – but not eliminated – political risks.
2. Africa as a growth region: Increasing foreign direct investment, particularly in infrastructure, energy, and raw material processing. Implication: Long-term opportunities for infrastructure, private equity, and impact investments in a highly diverse country landscape.
3. Geopolitics as a systemic risk: Ongoing conflicts and power politics increase risk premiums. Implication: Tailwinds for defense, cybersecurity, and strategic raw materials.
4. Climate Policy & Regulation: CO₂ pricing is gaining importance worldwide. The EU is fully implementing CBAM. Implication: Structural advantage for renewable energies, grids, storage, and efficiency technologies.
5. New globalization: Supply chains are diversified, resilience replaces pure cost optimization. Implication: Opportunities in logistics, nearshoring, infrastructure, and industrial real estate.
6. The Indo-Pacific region is of paramount economic importance but also faces increasing political risks. Implication: Concentration risks in technology and semiconductor stocks; hedging is necessary.
7. Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 is under financial pressure due to low oil prices. Implication: Selective opportunities, increasing project and sovereign risks.
8. China: Structural growth weakness, real estate crisis, political interventions. Implication: Subdued return expectations, selective opportunities in automation and green tech.
Strategic Recommendations
Explicitly factor geopolitical risks into investment decisions
Focus on regions with reform momentum and political stability
Prioritizing resilient business models with regulatory adaptability
Long-term allocation to energy, infrastructure and transformation sectors
Conclusion
2026 is not a cyclical year, but a structural one. Broad market exposure is losing its appeal – selection is becoming the key source of returns.
Specifically, this means: actively pricing geopolitical risks, overweighting regions with reform momentum, allocating to energy, grid, and infrastructure issues for the long term, and hedging concentration risks (e.g., tech/semiconductors in the Indo-Pacific). Those who react early to new trade and investment axes secure strategic advantages – and remain investable even amidst volatile headlines.
We support you in setting up a resilient portfolio for 2026 and decisively monetizing opportunities.
With best regards and happy investing,
Your service team
Disclaimer
Important legal notice: The information contained in this newsletter is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or any other professional advice. The data and analyses provided here are based on sources we consider reliable; however, we assume no liability for their timeliness, accuracy, completeness, or quality.
Investments in financial markets involve risks, including the potential loss of invested capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Decisions based on the information contained in this newsletter are the sole responsibility of the reader. We assume no liability for any direct or indirect losses or damages that may arise from the use of this information. This newsletter should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. We recommend seeking professional advice and considering the relevant legal and tax implications before making any investment decision. The contents of this newsletter are protected by copyright. Any distribution, reproduction, or other use of the content requires the prior written consent of the publisher.
Source:
Torsten Leißner