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KAPITALKOMPASS #56: 2025 Review & 2026 Outlook
- service4100
- Dec 16, 2025
- 4 min read
Dear readers,
2025 presented challenges for the capital markets – and validated high-performing portfolios. Amidst tariff policies, geopolitical disruptions, and shifting interest rate narratives, it became clear that those who consistently diversify, apply quality standards, and seize opportunities remain agile and achieve results. Our review contextualizes the year's key drivers, while our outlook for 2026 translates these insights into clear allocation principles – focusing on performance transparency, risk budgeting, and scalable sources of return.
Year-end assessment
2025 was no walk in the park – yet it was a profitable year. Amidst volatile trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating interest rate expectations, US stocks in particular performed well; leading technology companies and AI winners set the pace, supported by monetary policy. Those who remained invested and capitalized on dips achieved double-digit returns with US-heavy portfolios.
What really drove 2025
Three forces dominated the market:
AI investments as a productivity driver and valuation multiplier,
The Federal Reserve's interest rate path acts as a pacemaker for risk appetite,
Geopolitics/tariffs triggered temporary spikes in volatility.
After a weaker period in the spring, a significant recovery followed – particularly technology-oriented indices, which led the broader market. Nevertheless, the pullbacks were real: the rally remained vulnerable to political headlines and unexpected data releases.
Learning curve 2025:
Positioning beats forecast
A key takeaway from this year: Underinvestment cost returns . We observed numerous asset managers who kept their equity allocation persistently low due to the spring market turbulence – and thus missed out on the year's rally. Disciplined allocation with clear guidelines, on the other hand, paid off.
Looking ahead:
2026 will be broader – and more selective
For 2026, we expect broader market contributions :
Besides tech, cyclical sectors (finance, industrials) and defensive sectors (healthcare, utilities) are increasingly coming into focus. The environment is becoming more earnings-driven; valuations must be measured against cash flows. At the same time, opportunities remain due to productivity gains and potentially supportive monetary policy – alongside risks from geopolitics, inflation setbacks, and segment overvaluations.
Strategy 2026:
Robust, diverse, capable of action
The goal should be participation in growth areas – without concentration risks.
Key elements:
Equities : Quality and dividend stocks as anchors; targeted AI/automation exposures with profit transparency.
Bonds : Use a mix of maturities and credit ratings to stabilize the market; selectively utilize opportunities in corporate bonds.
Real assets/commodities : Inflation and regime buffers.
Digital assets : Tactical inclusion with clear risk parameters.
Guidance from 2025 for the risk/return curve:
A security-oriented portfolio achieved a return of approximately 4.0% with low fluctuations, a 50/50 portfolio around 6.0%, while a pure equity portfolio – with significantly higher volatility – finished close to double digits. These ranges are no guarantee for 2026, but they demonstrate how strongly the target allocation influences the result.
The following illustration shows a simplified classification of strategic portfolio orientations in terms of risk and return potential.
Opportunities and Risks 2026
Opportunities arise from productivity gains, solid corporate balance sheets, and potentially supportive monetary policy. Risks include geopolitical escalations, inflation setbacks, and isolated valuation overreactions. Establishing clear investment guidelines and consistently monitoring them will remain essential in 2026.
In 2025, we observed several asset managers who, due to the turbulence in the spring, kept their equity allocations underweight throughout the year and consequently missed the stock market rally – with correspondingly below-average results.
Therefore, the following also applies to 2026: A diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, commodities and cryptocurrencies is the most sensible way to generate a solid return with manageable risk.
Conclusion
Our key finding: 2025 rewarded resilience; 2026 will reward selective investing. Now it's crucial to reduce concentration risks, strengthen quality and dividend anchors, strategically pursue AI-driven growth areas, and actively manage interest rate and currency risks.
If you would like to fine-tune your allocation for the next twelve months, we will gladly review your portfolio with a view to robustness, cash flows and scenario resilience – pragmatically, transparently, and with strong implementation capabilities.
With best regards and happy investing,
Your service team
Disclaimer
Important legal notice: The information contained in this newsletter is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or any other professional advice. The data and analyses provided here are based on sources we consider reliable; however, we assume no liability for their timeliness, accuracy, completeness, or quality.
Investments in financial markets involve risks, including the potential loss of invested capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Decisions based on the information contained in this newsletter are the sole responsibility of the reader. We assume no liability for any direct or indirect losses or damages that may arise from the use of this information. This newsletter should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. We recommend seeking professional advice and considering the relevant legal and tax implications before making any investment decision. The contents of this newsletter are protected by copyright. Any distribution, reproduction, or other use of the content requires the prior written consent of the publisher.
Source:
Torsten Leißner