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KAPITALKOMPASS #59: IPOs 2026
- Jan 16
- 4 min read
Dear readers,
The stock market year 2026 could become significantly more exciting for private investors: After a period in which many companies postponed their IPOs, initial public offerings (IPOs) are once again coming into focus. However, with IPOs, the headline rarely decides the outcome – the quality of the business model, valuation, and time horizon are crucial. In the first few months after listing, market mechanisms driven by liquidity, expectations, and storytelling often dominate; long-term investment success, on the other hand, stems from substance, scalability, and robust competitive advantages.
In this edition of the CAPITAL COMPASS, we provide you with an investor-oriented overview of selected IPO candidates for 2026 – from platform and infrastructure sectors to AI, biotech, and industry. The aim is to provide a clear assessment: Where do the structural opportunities lie, where are the typical pitfalls – and how can potential IPO investments be meaningfully integrated into a long-term portfolio?
SpaceX: Infrastructure play with scalability via Starlink
SpaceX is presented in the proposal as a candidate for an IPO profile that is more reminiscent of "critical infrastructure" than classic tech hype: market leadership in commercial spaceflight, structural cost advantages through reusable rockets, and with Starlink, a scalable business model in satellite-based internet. The opportunities lie in a long-term demand backbone (connectivity, space, defense), while the risks primarily concern capital requirements and regulatory frameworks. For long-term investors, this could be a potential core investment – if the valuation is appropriate – but only with a clear risk assessment.
OpenAI & Anthropic:
Platform logic vs. "safety-first" positioning
Within the AI sector, investment narratives differ significantly: OpenAI is positioned as the leading platform in generative AI, offering opportunities through scalability and platform and network effects, particularly via its integration into enterprise software and cloud ecosystems. In contrast, Anthropic positions itself more strongly on the basis of "safe, regulatory-compliant AI," which can be a strategic advantage in regulated industries (e.g., finance, government). Both scenarios identify risks in regulatory intervention and intense competition; Anthropic also faces the risk of potentially more cautious monetization. The bottom line: an attractive playing field – but valuation, governance, and regulation are the key deal-breakers.
Aktis Oncology: Biotech as an asymmetric admixture
Aktis Oncology embodies the classic biotech profile: specializing in innovative cancer therapies with potentially high valuation leverage in the event of clinical success – but conversely, with high uncertainty due to study progress and correspondingly pronounced volatility. For private investors, this means: a rather satellite position in the portfolio, with strictly limited position size, a clear loss tolerance, and a conscious expectation that news and milestones can drive the share price more strongly than current fundamental data.
Regions & Sectors: Kunlunxin (China) and CSG (Europe) – plus overall conclusion
In terms of regional focus, the report identifies Kunlunxin (Baidu's AI chip division) as a strategically relevant asset for China's technological independence – offering opportunities through government support but also significant risks due to geopolitical tensions. In Europe, the Czechoslovak Group (CSG) is categorized as an industrial and technology conglomerate with a strong defense focus, offering opportunities from rising defense spending and long-term government contracts – while simultaneously posing political and ethical risks. The report's overall conclusion is clear: For long-term investors, AI and platform companies appear structurally attractive; biotech and defense are considered more as risk-aware additions. Crucially, broad diversification and a sound understanding of valuation and risk architecture remain essential.
Conclusion
Our conclusion: 2026 could be an IPO year that impresses not primarily through quantity, but through quality and compelling narratives with genuine operational traction. From a long-term perspective, companies with platform logic or infrastructure characteristics in their markets are particularly attractive – because economies of scale, network effects, and high barriers to entry can make all the difference. At the same time, it's important to note that, especially with prominent candidates, the central risk is often not the product itself, but the valuation – and thus the price paid for growth.
For practical purposes, we recommend IPOs as a selective satellite instrument: with a clear position sizing logic, sufficient diversification, and a plan for dealing with volatility in the first few trading months. Those with a long-term perspective rarely win by perfectly timing the first trading day – but rather by disciplined buying more shares during phases when the market shifts from expectations to fundamental data.
If you wish, we would be happy to assist you in clearly integrating IPO topics into your personal wealth strategy.
With best regards and happy investing,
Your service team
Disclaimer
Important legal notice: The information contained in this newsletter is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or any other professional advice. The data and analyses provided here are based on sources we consider reliable; however, we assume no liability for their timeliness, accuracy, completeness, or quality.
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Source:
Torsten Leißner