_edited.png)
KAPITALKOMPASS #50: Capital Market Outlook October 2025
- service4100
- Oct 2
- 2 min read
Dear readers,
October begins with a more robust global economy than expected at the beginning of the year. Despite geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, monetary and fiscal policy measures are supporting the economy. This creates opportunities for investors – but also the need to keep a clear eye on risks.
Economy: Transitional year with perspective
2025 remains a transitional year. The labor market in the US is deteriorating, but high government spending and investments in artificial intelligence could provide new impetus. In Germany, growth is stagnating, but positive effects from government investment programs are expected starting in 2026.
Stock markets:
selectively optimistic
Corporate profits are developing steadily, although setbacks are possible at any time. The MSCI World is up 8.5% year-to-date. Smart sector selection will be crucial: technology, dividend stocks, and quality stocks remain favorites. At the same time, caution is advised, as rising tariffs could weigh on exports and consumption.
Interest rates & currencies
The US Federal Reserve has cut its key interest rate by 0.25%. This weakens the dollar, especially as political interventions in the Fed are hurting confidence. Investors are advised to hedge currency exposure for US investments. The euro is stable against the Swiss franc, driven by slightly improved economic data.
Digital assets: robust trends
Bitcoin defended the $108,000 mark, showing strength. ETF inflows are supporting demand, and Ethereum and other altcoins are also benefiting. Regulatory clarity in the US is providing additional tailwind.
Investment conclusion
Equities : Focus on quality stocks, technology and dividend strategies.
Bonds : Shifting into high-dividend stocks with low yields.
Commodities & Gold : Overweight gold, keep commodities neutral.
Currencies : Hedging against dollar fluctuations makes sense.
Digital Assets : Positive market structure supports engagement.
Conclusion: The environment remains volatile but offers selective opportunities. Diversification, clear weightings, and a flexible strategy are crucial.
Best regards and successful investing,
Your service team
Disclaimer
Important legal notice: The information contained in this newsletter is for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or other professional advice. The data and analyses provided here are based on sources we consider reliable; however, we assume no liability for their timeliness, accuracy, completeness, or quality.
Investments in financial markets involve risks, including the possible loss of invested capital. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Decisions based on the information contained in this newsletter are the sole responsibility of the reader. We assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage that may arise from the use of this information. This newsletter should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. We recommend seeking professional advice and considering the relevant legal and tax aspects before making any investment decision. The contents of this newsletter are protected by copyright. Any distribution, reproduction, or other use of the contents requires the prior written consent of the publisher.
Source:
Torsten Leissner