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KAPITALKOMPASS #48: Between interest and tariffs
- service4100
- Sep 3
- 3 min read
Updated: 3d
Dear readers,
We hope you've had a good start to September. Global markets are proving more robust than many expected at the end of the summer. While the headlines continue to be dominated by tariffs, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical tensions, it's worth taking a more nuanced view: The economy is holding up remarkably well, and the outlook for the coming months is generally positive – despite some risks.
World economy –
stable dynamics despite uncertainties
The global economy is currently exceeding expectations. In the US , strong corporate investment and additional stimulus from a fiscal stimulus package are providing tailwind. The Eurozone and Switzerland are also reporting solid growth, slightly ahead of forecasts and supported by higher government spending. Although momentum in China is weaker, the figures there are also better than expected.
The announced tariffs have had little impact so far, but they pose a risk for the coming quarters.
Stock markets –
Opportunities and valuations
The DAX has experienced a correction after its record high, but could stabilize above the 24,000 point mark. Risks remain: profit-taking and structural weaknesses in the German economy, for example in energy and demographics.
In the US, technology companies continue to drive the major indices to new records. Valuations are high, with a P/E ratio of around 22, while European stocks are significantly cheaper, with a P/E ratio of around 14.
Interest rates & monetary policy –
Focus on the Fed
Markets are eagerly awaiting the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve on September 16. A rate cut is expected, but the extent remains unclear.
A reduction of more than 0.5% could provide additional tailwind for highly indebted US small caps.
At the same time, falling short-term interest rates increase the attractiveness of dividend stocks .
Currencies –
politically influenced
The US dollar has been deliberately weakened by the US government, giving domestic companies a competitive advantage. The Swiss franc remains stable against the euro, but shows potential for appreciation against the dollar. The euro has been moving sideways against the franc for months.
Conclusion: Optimism with a sense of proportion
The financial markets are currently benefiting from a robust economy, positive corporate earnings, and the prospect of interest rate cuts. However, risks such as high valuations, tariff conflicts, and structural weaknesses – particularly in Germany – remain.
In this environment, it is crucial to focus on quality and dividend-paying stocks and to be selective with small-cap stocks. In our view, a broadly diversified investment strategy that capitalizes on opportunities while maintaining stability remains the right path.
Best regards and successful investing,
Your service team
Disclaimer
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Source:
Torsten Leissner