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KAPITALKOMPASS #53: Market Paradox 2025 - Tech ↑, Gold ↑, Interest Rates ↓
- service4100
- Nov 13
- 7 min read
Updated: 2 days ago
Dear readers,
We are currently experiencing a market regime that classic textbooks don't depict: record highs in tech, all-time highs in gold, stable inflation around 2.5%, falling interest rates – and simultaneously a cooling labor market. This convergence is not a "soft landing," but rather the expression of a monetary policy dilemma. This is precisely where our analysis begins: What does this policy trap mean for portfolios – and how can one position oneself robustly between the productivity narrative (tech) and systemic protection (gold)?
The new macroeconomic conflict of objectives
We are in a macroeconomic phase that, according to classical economic models, should not actually be able to coexist stably – and yet it does.
At the same time, we observe:
Technology stocks are setting records.
Gold reaches historic highs.
Inflation remains at around 2.5%.
Central banks are nevertheless lowering short-term key interest rates.
Unemployment is rising slowly, while job creation is slowing.
The key point is the simultaneity . It doesn't signal a "soft landing," but rather a policy trap: central banks effectively no longer have any painless course of action.
By raising interest rates, they risk financial stability, growth, and employment.
If they loosen the rules further, they will cement higher inflation plateaus and fuel asset prices.
The consequence: Monetary policy does not choose the economically "optimal" solution, but rather the one with the least political damage – with two market-side reactions:
Tech is being priced as a future productivity driver (economies of scale, AI narrative).
Gold serves as a systemic hedging component (currency, fiscal, and regulatory risks).
For investors, this means: understand the regime, not fight it – and structure portfolios in such a way that both paths are addressed (productivity and hedging).
Financial markets and the real economy
drifting apart
Capital markets are currently pricing in less the present and more a radical future. Large technology companies are no longer primarily valued using classic cash flow models, but rather as potential productivity monopolies along the AI stack. Capital is consistently playing out the "winner-takes-all" narrative – with corresponding valuation premiums. At the same time, the real economy is showing signs of fatigue: demand is cooling, unemployment is rising slowly but structurally, and investments outside the tech sector are losing momentum. This simultaneity is no coincidence, but rather the systemic expression of a new conflict of objectives between price stability, financial stability, and growth.
Against this backdrop, gold is rising not out of fear of hyperinflation, but as a hedge against systemic risks. Institutional investors are increasingly pricing in currency and fiscal risks – and the possibility that central banks will defend their nominal inflation targets less rigorously if stabilizing the financial system becomes a higher political priority. In this environment, technology represents future potential and productivity, while gold stands for institutional and balance sheet security. For investors, this presents not a contradiction, but a portfolio mandate: selectively hold high-quality, cash-flow-rich technology, establish a strategic gold allocation as a systemic hedge, and actively manage valuation and path risks – including currency and duration management. As a third pillar, real assets such as infrastructure and selected commodities offer a way to more robustly cushion policy-driven interest rate and regime changes. This allows the portfolio to remain agile in an environment of diverging narratives – and to seize opportunities without exceeding its risk budget.
Central banks are trapped.
An inflation rate of 2.5% seems harmless, but it marks a break with the old world order, where 2.0% was the sacrosanct target. In effect, central banks are accepting a higher inflation plateau – and yet they continue to lower key interest rates. This is financial repression in slow motion: Real returns are being pushed below inflation to gradually devalue the enormous national debts. The implicit message is: We cannot drastically slow down the real economy – political risks, geopolitical tensions, and the debt burden are too great. Accordingly, interest rates are being cut even though the labor market doesn't yet look statistically "bad" – a historically atypical pattern.
This regime can be identified by three qualitative indicators:
Technology stocks are driven by a future narrative of productivity promises and economies of scale – a clear momentum environment.
Gold is rising primarily as a systemic hedge, not out of classic inflation fears: currency and fiscal risks are being aggressively priced in.
Central banks justify easing measures preventively, not to combat deflation.
As long as this triangle remains intact, tech and gold can simultaneously reach new highs without creating an internal contradiction.
Things become critical when the narrative shifts – regimes rarely break linearly, but rather narratively. If the tech narrative shifts from "exponential growth" to margins and hard profits, gold is increasingly touted as a recession hedge, and central bank rhetoric changes from "optionality" to "we have to because of demand and labor market stress," this signals a genuine regime break. Volatility and duration then rise first, valuation premiums in tech are repriced, and risk aversion dominates. For investors, this means: monitor leading indicators of the narrative, maintain robust portfolios with quality stocks and stable cash flows, a strategic gold allocation, and clear duration/currency management – and react tactically and swiftly to a narrative shift.
What happens on a macro level in the capital market when this equilibrium shifts?
Volatility explodes first. First warning signal: large intraday fluctuations and red closing prices in leading indices.
Technology stocks are being repriced; valuations are shifting from "future fantasy" to "profits & cash flows" – multiples are falling faster than earnings.
Gold doesn't fall – gold reverses narrative: from system protection to recession protection – demand can increase.
Capital rotates in duration: flight into long-term, high-quality government bonds; rally thanks to recession-driven interest rate cuts.
Global Risk-Off Move: Broad stock market decline, higher risk premiums; high-yield securities suffer disproportionately; USD as a short-term haven.
When the divergence reverses, capital market fantasy ("future") is replaced by the capital market risk aversion function ("survival").
Historically typical sequence
such regime switches
Volatility is increasing
Gold holds – or continues to rise
High-quality government bonds (also denominated in US dollars) are rising significantly.
The US dollar will briefly become a safe haven.
Only then will the widespread crash / revaluation of the stock markets follow.
Tech loses its future narrative → Gold gains insurance function → Government bonds gain → Stocks lose overall → Volatility takes the lead.
Early warning signals
for overturning this divergence
Shift in the tech narrative: Media/Research are moving from "productivity & exponentiality" to margins, cash flows, costs, valuation.
Monitoring: Language patterns in earnings calls/notes, feedback on the “AI” keyword density.
The rationale for gold shifts from system hedging to recession hedging (weak profits, "hard landing", weak demand).
Monitoring: ETF inflows, research rationales, gold/VAT correlation.
Central bank rhetoric shifts from "preventive/optionality" to clear causes of recession (demand collapses, labor market cools, credit conditions tighten).
Monitoring: press conferences, minute wording, senior loan officer surveys.
When future narrative becomes → explanation of the real economy, system safeguarding becomes → recession safeguarding, and preventive measures become → “we must”, the divergence collapses.
The structural core of this period
We are at the beginning of a new macroeconomic era in which classical market logic no longer operates linearly. Technology stocks are increasingly priced as future productivity monopolies, gold serves institutional investors as a hedge against systemic and fiscal risks, and central banks prioritize political and financial stability over the former dogma of strict price stability. The real economy is not keeping pace with this triad—demand is sluggish, labor markets are cooling—but this very asynchronicity is not an anomaly, but rather the new fundamental regime.
This regime doesn't end with individual data points, but with a shift in narrative. The tipping point isn't the next inflation figure, but the simultaneous shift in three narrative strands: when tech loses its dominance of the future in favor of hard profit metrics, when gold is no longer bought primarily as a safeguard against systemic problems but as recession insurance, and when central banks no longer justify their actions "preventively" but with visible weakness in the real economy, then the structural triple break has occurred.
From this moment on, the market focus shifts from hope for future returns to immediate risk avoidance – and volatility takes over as the leading market.
When markets no longer buy the future, but security, the current divergence collapses into an abrupt regime change.
Conclusion
Our conclusion is clear: Don't oppose the regime, but rather reflect it in a targeted way. Operationally, this means:
Play productivity games: Quality tech with verifiable cash flows and realistic AI leverage, actively monitoring ratings.
Establishing a hedge: Strategic gold quota as a system and regime hedge.
Increase robustness: Use duration and currency management tactically; real assets (infrastructure/raw materials) as a third pillar.
Early warning systems in focus: Narrative shift in tech (from "exponentiality" to margins), justification for gold (system → recession) and tone of central banks (preventive → "we must") are the tipping points.
Should the divergence reverse, the market will quickly shift from future-oriented optimism to risk aversion – then volatility, high-quality government bonds, and a temporarily stronger US dollar will lead the way. Until then, the advice is: diversify diligently, maintain a liquidity buffer, and selectively use entry windows.
We are happy to accompany you – with sound advice, objectivity, and by your side.
With best regards and happy investing,
Your service team
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Source:
Torsten Leißner