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KAPITALKOMPASS #46: Customs deal
- service4100
- Aug 1
- 3 min read
Dear readers,
We hope you had a good start to August and are enjoying the summer months – with a keen eye on the capital markets.
At the start of the month, stock markets reacted positively to the customs agreement between the EU and the US. However, the initial euphoria quickly gave way to the realization that the deal is likely less substantial than hoped. European auto stocks, in particular, came under pressure – a warning signal for anyone who confuses political headlines with sustainable growth.
Customs deal:
More symbolism than substance
The concessions between Brussels and Washington initially caused the major European indices to rise. The DAX approached its record high before profit-taking began – especially among the supposed winners of the deal: BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen. There was no major stock market celebration in the US either. It remains unclear what economic impact the agreement will actually have.
The focus is on the US Federal Reserve
Following the tariff compromise, the Fed's monetary policy is coming into focus. Despite political pressure, the US central bank is sticking to its key interest rate. A first cut is not expected until October at the earliest. At the same time, the first signs of economic weakness are increasing in the US – especially in the consumer sector. For investors, this means caution against premature optimism.
Europe's stability as an opportunity
The economic situation in Europe is proving more robust. Investment programs, higher government spending, and increasingly flexible debt policies are stabilizing the economy. High-dividend, high-quality European stocks, in particular, are demonstrating resilience and earnings potential – not least due to the weakness of the US dollar.
Technology & Defense
remain interesting
Fast-growing tech companies from the US and Asia as well as European defense stocks remain in focus – especially in light of geopolitical tensions and rising defense spending.
Digital assets on the rise
Bitcoin and Ethereum continue their upward trend. Driving this trend are increasing regulatory clarity in the US, rising liquidity, and new products such as Ethereum ETFs with staking. The US Digital Assets Working Group will publish further guidance at the end of July – a potential stimulus for further price gains.
Conclusion and outlook:
Navigating with vision
The markets are showing their ambivalent side in August: political agreements are quickly followed by doubt, and hope is followed by caution. In this environment, it is more important than ever to think strategically rather than chasing every short-term headline.
Especially for long-term investors, times of geopolitical tension, monetary policy uncertainty, and technological upheaval offer special opportunities – provided the portfolio is well positioned: broadly diversified, thematically focused, and geared toward quality.
At HOLON, we monitor developments in the capital markets daily and, together with our clients, ask ourselves the crucial question: Where is a prudent investment worthwhile – and where is caution called for? The CAPITAL COMPASS is your regular guide through the complex interplay of business, politics, and capital.
If you have any questions about our market assessment, your asset structure, or new investment opportunities, we are available to assist you personally as always.
With kind regards and best wishes for a successful August,
Your service team
Disclaimer
Important legal notice: The information contained in this newsletter is for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or other professional advice. The data and analyses provided here are based on sources we consider reliable; however, we assume no liability for their timeliness, accuracy, completeness, or quality.
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Source:
Torsten Leissner